Airbus Forecasts Demand for 42,060 New Aircraft by 2045 as Direct Routes Reshape Global Aviation

Airbus has released a revised long-term market outlook projecting global demand for 42,060 new commercial aircraft by 2045, citing the continued growth of direct point-to-point routes, fleet renewal requirements, and rising passenger traffic across emerging markets.

The European planemaker unveiled the forecast on July 8, 2026, offering a detailed view of how airlines will expand and modernize their fleets over the next two decades. The projection reflects both optimism about long-term travel demand and Airbus's view that near-term disruptions, including geopolitical conflicts and fuel price volatility, do not dampen long-term aviation demand, as historical data consistently shows.

A Slight Trim to Previous Projections

The updated figure represents a modest reduction of 390 aircraft from Airbus's previous forecast of 42,450 new aircraft, published last year. The revision is a routine annual adjustment reflecting updated assumptions rather than a response to any specific geopolitical event. 

Airbus has been explicit that short-term disruptions such as regional conflicts and high fuel prices are not expected to affect long-term demand.

Despite the downward revision, Airbus maintains that the fundamental drivers of aviation growth remain intact. Rising middle-class populations in Asia, expanding tourism, and the replacement of older, less fuel-efficient aircraft continue to underpin the long-term demand story.

Direct Routes Drive Fleet Composition

One of the most notable trends shaping the forecast is the shift toward direct, point-to-point routes. Airlines increasingly bypass traditional hub airports in favor of connecting secondary cities directly, driven by urbanization shifting toward smaller cities, which Airbus notes will grow at significantly faster pace than larger urban centers. This model requires more versatile, fuel-efficient aircraft capable of making thinner routes commercially viable.

Airbus expects single-aisle jets to account for 81% of new deliveries, with widebody aircraft making up the remaining 19%. The A320neo family dominates this category, while Airbus also highlighted the A220 as a “network builder” noting it has already created 400 new routes across North America, Europe, and Africa, with more than 2,200 unserved routes still suited for the type.

Widebody aircraft, used primarily for long-haul international flights, will also see significant demand. The A330neo and A350 families are positioned to serve carriers looking to open new intercontinental routes without the capacity requirements of the largest jumbo jets.

Passenger Traffic and Economic Growth

Airbus forecasts passenger traffic to grow at an average annual rate of 3.9% annually over the next 20 years, supported by global GDP growth of 2.6% per year. By 2045, air traffic will more than double, reaching approximately 10 billion passengers per year. The world's passenger and freighter fleet is expected to nearly double, growing from 23,210 aircraft at the end of 2025 to 45,550 aircraft by the end of 2045.

Of the 42,060 aircraft required, 22,240 will support traffic growth while 19,820 will replace older planes. By 2045, Airbus forecasts that nearly 100% of the global fleet will consist of next-generation aircraft, up from approximately 39% in 2026.

Asia-Pacific leads the demand outlook. China requires the most new aircraft of any single market, with domestic China travel accounting for the largest traffic flows globally. Other key growth markets include India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia, where economic growth and rising incomes are expected to generate a larger share of future passenger traffic.

Fleet Renewal and Sustainability Pressures

A significant portion of the projected demand comes from replacement rather than pure growth. Airlines face mounting pressure to retire older aircraft in favor of newer models that burn less fuel and produce fewer emissions. The aviation industry has committed to reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, a target that requires substantial investment in new-generation aircraft, sustainable aviation fuels, and eventually hydrogen-powered planes.

Supply Chain Challenges Remain

While the demand outlook remains strong, Airbus and its main competitor Boeing continue to face significant supply chain constraints. Shortages of engines, structural components, and skilled labor have delayed deliveries and forced airlines to extend the service life of older aircraft. Recent geopolitical tensions have added further complexity to global manufacturing operations.

Competitive Landscape

The forecast comes as Airbus continues to compete with Boeing in commercial aircraft orders and deliveries. The American manufacturer has faced ongoing production and regulatory challenges, giving Airbus an opportunity to capture additional market share. Emerging competitors, including China's COMAC with its C919 narrow-body jet, are also entering the market, though their impact on the global duopoly remains limited in the near term.

For airlines, aircraft lessors, and passengers, the Airbus forecast signals that aviation growth will continue for decades to come, even as the industry navigates immediate economic and geopolitical turbulence.